Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition on July 20 lost its majority in the upper house of the country’s Diet, securing only 47 of the 125 seats up for grabs in the 248-member chamber.

Sanseitō, a right-wing populist party, surged from one to 14 seats, gaining legislative proposal power. Led by Sohei Kamiya, its anti-LGBTQ+ stance that includes opposition to marriage equality and school discussions, raises concerns for the community’s rights.

On July 3, a day after Sanseitō’s campaign began, Kamiya, its leader and chief spokesperson, criticized Japan’s gender equality policies as “misguided.” In a speech, he supported a 100,000 yen ($673.80) monthly child allowance to boost birth rates, but opposed diversity initiatives and gender policies, claiming they weaken traditional Japanese culture.

In campaign materials and voter guides, Kamiya opposed marriage equality, the 2023 Act on Promotion of Public Understanding of Diversity of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity, and LGBTQ+ education in schools. Sanseitō’s platform, detailed in its official 2025 election manifesto published on its website, rejects these policies, a position Kamiya reinforced in a July 3 speech covered by the Asahi Shimbun, one of the oldest Japanese daily newspapers, aligning with the party’s “Japanese First” agenda.

The Diet on June 16, 2023, passed the Act on the Promotion of Public Understanding of Diversity of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity. The law mandates that the national government, local authorities, businesses, schools, and employers foster understanding of diverse sexual orientations and gender identities, to create a tolerant society and prevent unfair discrimination.

The Los Angeles Blade in March reported the Nagoya High Court declared Japan’s lack of legal recognition for same-sex marriages unconstitutional. The ruling strengthened advocates’ push for marriage equality in Japan, the only G7 nation yet to grant such rights.

Five Japanese high courts — in Sapporo, Tokyo, Fukuoka, Nagoya, and Osaka — between March 2024 and March 2025 ruled the country’s ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional, citing violations of constitutional guarantees of equality and individual dignity under Articles 13, 14, and 24.

The Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition’s loss of its House of Councillors majority election, the first since 1955, hinders Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ability to advance progressive legislation. The coalition’s minority status in both houses of the Diet requires consensus with opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party or the Democratic Party for the People, a challenge given ideological divides and Sanseitō’s growing influence.

“We do not believe that the results of this election have a significant impact on the LGBTQ+ movement in Japan. However, we are concerned that the negative claims and misinformation about LGBTQ+ issues spread by right-wing political candidates and their supporters during the election campaign may have had a negative impact on society,” said Takeharu Kato, director of Marriage for All Japan. “We have not yet fully analyzed the reasons behind the gains made by right-wing parties such as Sanseitō in this election.”

“However, we need to be aware that it is becoming easier for populist parties to gain support due to the spread of social media,” added Kato. “Their arguments regarding same-sex marriage and transgender issues are completely unfounded, but such claims are being spread on social media without any fact-checking.”

Kato noted the proportion of MPs supporting marriage equality legalization dipped slightly from 46 percent to 45 percent. Kato emphasized that while the election outcome does not fundamentally alter the LGBTQ+ movement’s strategy, it requires tailored lobbying efforts to navigate the evolving political dynamics.

“At present, we are analyzing the reasons for the rise of right-wing political parties, and no specific action plan has been decided yet,” said Kato. “Support for populist parties and politicians is growing worldwide.

Their arguments often have commonalities, such as xenophobia and anti-gender equality. Therefore, I believe it is increasingly important to launch campaigns to counter these movements through international cooperation. Domestically, I also think it is important to collaborate with activists and movements for separate surnames for married couples.”

Kato told the Blade that with minority rights increasingly threatened, Japan’s courts, viewed as the last bastion for protecting human rights, must take bold action. On marriage equality legalization, he urged the judiciary to not only rule the current ban unconstitutional but also direct legislative changes and limit the Diet’s discretion

“Even after this election, the percentage of Diet members who support the legalization of same-sex marriage has remained almost unchanged from before the election. In other words, even after this election, roughly half of Diet members support the legalization of same-sex marriage,” said Kato. “Therefore, the results of this election should not be interpreted as reflecting a negative or cautious public opinion toward the legalization of same-sex marriage. We would like you to report this accurately.”

Akira Nishiyama, an activist with the Japan Alliance for LGBT Legislation, told the Blade that Sanseitō’s seat gains in the House of Councillors are likely to amplify discriminatory rhetoric during Diet sessions, potentially hindering progress on sexuality-related bills and policies.

“The specific details of the basic implementation plan and guidelines under the Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity (SOGI) Awareness-raising law will be formulated later, therefore we can’t take our eyes off from how the result of election will affect the process of formulation,” said Nishiyama. “In any case, we intend to confront fake news that is being spread while avoiding drawing too much attention to right-wing and extreme right-wing groups and refraining from contributing to their propaganda.”

Nishiyama said that while resisting right-wing and far-right attacks domestically is essential, the LGBTQ+ community must avoid letting these groups dominate attention. Instead, collaboration is needed to reinforce freedom, human rights, and democracy. Internationally, Nishiyama urged overseas media to expose the coordinated nature of anti-LGBTQ+ attacks, tracing their sources and funding, and to highlight any efforts by hegemonic powers to weaken democratic forces through such campaigns.

Mameta Endo, a transgender rights activist in Japan with Niji-zu, one of the most visible organizations that provides service for LGBTQ+ youth in Japan, told the Blade that while major LGBTQ+ organizations have not formally addressed Sanseito’s rise, activists have expressed alarm at protests. Endo highlighted Kamiya’s public statements, including “We don’t need LGBT” and “We don’t need gender-free thinking. Men should be manly, and women should be womanly,” which Endo said feels like a personal denial of his existence.

“While Sanseitō remains a minor political party and is unlikely to immediately influence national politics, its distinctive strategy involves spreading misinformation to stir public anxiety toward minorities such as foreigners, thereby inciting the general public,” said Endo. “Already, during this protest and recent elections, false information about foreigners has spread widely, forcing the media to devote resources to fact-checking.” 

“Regarding LGBTQ issues, a baseless rumor circulated on social media in Saitama Prefecture, claiming that an anti-discrimination ordinance led to gender-neutral restrooms and changing rooms at a welfare facility, causing mass resignations of staff,” noted Endo. “This misinformation was spread by an advisor to Sanseitō.”

Endo said Sanseitō’s actions have fueled disruptions, including 300 complaints that prompted Saitama’s governor to hold two press conferences to counter false information. Endo said Sanseito supporters have targeted his organization with campaigns claiming it seeks to separate children from parents and endanger them. 

A Sanseitō-affiliated Shibuya City assembly member has also opposed government-hosted LGBTQ+ youth spaces, citing lack of parental consent. 

Endo noted Sanseitō’s spread of unfounded claims in education, including LGBTQ+ grooming conspiracies detailed in their recent TPATH blog article, risks stoking parental fear and disrupting schools.

“Sanseitō appears to be modeling its approach on that of Donald Trump, seeking out groups it can target in order to attract media attention,” said Endo. “While their current focus is primarily on foreigners, there is a growing fear that LGBTQ people may become their next target.” 

“To counter the stream of misinformation they spread, it is essential to conduct rapid fact-checking, push public institutions to issue accurate information, and educate the media,” said Endo. “Sanseitō is a newly formed party with underdeveloped policies and frequently shifting positions, which has led to criticism even from some on the political right. It will be important to work with both the ruling and opposition parties, including the Liberal Democratic Party, to ensure that accurate information is being disseminated.”

Endo told the Blade that Sanseito’s rise reflects a temporary populist wave, popular among voters under 30, many of whom support marriage equality but may have voted for the party, swayed by TikTok content, unaware of its anti-LGBTQ+ stance. Citing the Democratic Party for the People’s social media-driven surge six months ago and Shinji Ishimaru’s fleeting popularity in the 2024 Tokyo governor election, Endo argued Sanseitō’s support, tied to its anti-foreigner rhetoric amid over-tourism concerns, does not signal a public rejection of LGBTQ+ policies.

Diego Garcia Rodriguez, a Leverhulme Research Fellow at the University of Nottingham and LGBTQ+ activist, told the Blade that the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition’s loss of its House of Councillors majority likely stems from voter frustration over stagnant wages, rising costs, and trade disputes, rather than a direct rejection of LGBTQ+ rights. 

Garcia noted that while 72 percent of Japanese people support marriage equality and all 47 prefectures offer partnership certificates, only four of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito’s 79 upper-house candidates backed marriage rights for same-sex couples, reflecting the party’s lag on minority rights. Sanseitō’s pledge to repeal the 2023 LGBT Understanding Promotion Act and its opposition to “excessive” minority protections could elevate equality debates in future elections, though Garcia believes these were not the decisive factor this time.

“Sanseitō’s rise is worrying for many reasons but one of them has to do with  long‑term equality work obviously,” said Garcia. “By contrast, progressive reforms are already under way … So I guess the battle is now between those who want to normalise diversity in classrooms and a fascist noisy group that is determined to roll back that progress.”

Garcia told the Blade that the election has energized queer communities and allies, with Marriage for All Japan and Asuniwa launching a smartphone tool, allowing voters to scan campaign posters to check candidates’ positions on marriage equality, empowering younger voters to hold politicians accountable. Social media sharing of candidate questionnaires has also surged. Garcia, however, noted growing fatigue among activists, campaigning for years, and concern over Sanseitō’s far-right presence in the Diet, shifting advocacy from broad outreach to targeted pressure on lawmakers.

Garcia told the Blade the Act on the Promotion of Public Understanding of Diversity of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity is largely symbolic, as its original clause banning discrimination was softened to “there should be no unfair discrimination” and lacks penalties. Local governments and companies are still adopting training and policies, and more municipalities are enacting ordinances against outing someone’s sexual orientation or gender identity. 

All 47 prefectures now offer partnership systems. Date, a city in Fukushima Prefecture, for example, providing housing benefits and family recognition. 

Garcia said the election’s impact on these initiatives hinges on local leadership, as conservative councillors may resist, but many mayors view such measures as ways to attract young residents and investment, regardless of national politics.

“They should listen to the courts and the people,” he said. “As I have said before high courts have made it clear that denying same‑sex couples the right to marry is unconstitutional, and a large majority of the public supports marriage equality so in my opinion refusing to act not only violates basic rights, but also perpetuates the mental‑health crisis documented by ReBit if we look at the survey where over half of LGBTQ teens have contemplated suicide in Japan.” 

“So, passing a clear anti‑discrimination law and amending the civil code would send a powerful signal that everyone deserves respect and dignity,” added Garcia. “I would also urge lawmakers to protect inclusive education because children should learn that diversity is something they should respect and promote, rather than turning this into a taboo thing.”