California Politics
Public Policy Institute of California Poll; Newsom likely to survive recall
About half of likely voters express a preference for a replacement candidate. Republican Larry Elder (26%) is in the lead
SAN FRANCISCO – With ten days left till California’s recall election day, California Governor Gavin Newsom is stepping up his efforts to convince the state’s voters that it is in their best interests for him to remain as the state’s chief executive.
A poll released by the Public Policy Institute of California earlier this week shows that voters are leaning towards that choice.
These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues that was conducted from August 20 to August 29 by the PPIOC:
- Among California likely voters, 39 percent would vote yes to remove Newsom, with Republicans far more likely to vote yes. About half of likely voters (49%) say they either have not decided or would not vote for any of the replacement candidates on the recall ballot. →
- Seven in ten California likely voters say that the outcome of the recall election is very important to them, including solid majorities across partisan groups. When thinking about the September 14 recall election, 47 percent say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual. →
- Californians name COVID as the top issue facing the state today. Forty-seven percent say things in California are generally going in the right direction, with partisans deeply divided; 49 percent say that California is in an economic recession, and this view declines with rising income. →
- Fifty-three percent of Californians approve of the way that Governor Newsom is handling his job overall, and 50 percent approve of the California Legislature. Fifty-eight percent approve of the way that President Biden is handling his job, and 41 percent approve of the US Congress. →
- Forty-six percent of Californians say things in the United States are going in the right direction. Forty-four percent think the US will have good times financially in the next 12 months. →
- Sixty-one percent of Californians favor requiring proof of COVID vaccination for large outdoor gatherings or certain indoor spaces. More than three in four Californians—including strong majorities across regions—think the state government is doing an excellent or good job distributing COVID vaccines. →
The survey’s findings also included that if the recall election—scheduled for September 14, 2021—were held today, 39 percent of California likely voters say they would vote yes to remove Governor Newsom from office, while 58 percent say they would vote no on removing Newsom. There is partisan disagreement, with most Democratic likely voters (90%) and about half of independent likely voters (49%) saying they would vote no on removing Newsom, while most Republican likely voters (82%) say they would vote yes to remove him.
About half of likely voters express a preference for a replacement candidate. Republican Larry Elder (26%) is in the lead, while fewer than one in ten say they prefer either Kevin Faulconer (5%), John Cox (3%), Kevin Kiley (3%), or Caitlyn Jenner (1%). Fourteen percent name other candidates. (Only candidates with both significant media attention and sufficient resources for statewide campaigning were included in PPIOC's survey question; five candidates met this criteria.)
PPIOC also asked voters to name the most important issue facing people in California today; Californians most often name COVID-19. Additionally, about one in ten Californians name jobs and the economy or homelessness, while fewer mention housing costs and availability or problems with elected officials. Across partisan groups, Republicans are most likely to mention problems with elected officials and the economy, while Democrats are most likely to mention COVID-19. Nearly half of Californians think that the state is headed in the right direction, with Democrats far more likely than independents and Republicans to say this.
California Politics
Latest Los Angeles Times-UC Berkley poll shows Newsom beating recall
Fewer than 2% of likely voters remained undecided or declined to answer, suggesting the issue is largely settled in the minds of voters.
LOS ANGELES – A poll released Friday morning by the Los Angeles Times shows that for Governor Gavin Newsom a greater majority of Californians are opposed to ousting him from office. Efforts to enhance Newsom’s campaign in the past two weeks have been supported by the national Democratic Party leadership including a rally this past week in the Bay Area attended by Vice-President Kamala Harris.
According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll cosponsored by the Los Angeles Times released Friday, 60.1% of likely voters surveyed oppose recalling Newsom compared with 38.5% in favor of ousting the governor the Times reported.
Fewer than 2% of likely voters remained undecided or declined to answer, suggesting the issue is largely settled in the minds of California voters.
The poll also finds that Republican broadcaster Larry Elder has opened up a large lead in the replacement election should the Governor be recalled. Greater than one in three of voters who say they will be casting a ballotin the replacement election (38%) are supporting his candidacy, up from 18% in late July. Elder’s next closest rival is now Democrat Kevin Paffrath at 10%.
Support for Elder’s other Republican opponents has receded, with Kevin Faulconer at 8%, and John Cox and Kevin Kiley both at4%. The poll finds 16%of voters undecided and another 20% scattering their preferences among the other 41 candidates.
One unique twist in this year’s election is that nearly a third of likely voters (31%) say they will be taking a pass on voting in the replacement election, by leaving that part of the ballot blank. This increases to 48% among the state’s likely Democratic voters.
The last minute blitz of campaigning leading up to Tuesday’s vote by Californians has included a litany of adverts sponsored by Newsom’s campaign that has included Senator Bernie Sanders, (I-VT) and former President Barack Obama. Newsom and his supporters have labeled the special recall election as ‘the Republican recall.’
California Politics
Larry Elder gets ‘egged on’ to depart homeless encampment in Venice
A woman on a bicycle in a gorilla mask was captured on video throwing an egg toward Elder, although it did not appear to hit anyone.
VENICE – While Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom campaigned in the Bay Area Wednesday with Vice-President Kamala Harris, the leading Republican hopeful to replace him if the recall is successful, Larry Elder, first stopped to in-person vote and then headed to Venice for a scheduled tour of a homeless encampment on Third Avenue.
Arriving shortly before noon, the conservative radio talk-show host and entourage were immediately met by activists and a hostile crowd. As he was walking, a woman on a bicycle in a gorilla mask was captured on video by Spectrum1 LA news reporter Kate Cagle throwing an egg toward Elder, although it did not appear to hit anyone.
Breaking: A flying egg narrowly missed the back of recall candidate @larryelder‘s head after it was thrown by an activist wearing a gorilla mask in Venice. A scuffle broke out and the candidate was escorted into an SUV.
— Kate Cagle (@KateCagle) September 8, 2021
Here’s the raw (pun intended)
CW: f-bombs@SpecNews1SoCal pic.twitter.com/FeFx3wnuSD
A scuffle broke out with fists flying and an unidentified man believed to be a member of Elder’s staff started to approach the gorilla-masked woman, who screamed expletives in response. At least one other by-stander got up into the man’s face and also hurled expletives at him.
It was at this point that Elder’s staff placed him in a white SUV and rapidly departed the area. Los Angeles Police Department spokesperson Tony Im said the LAPD was looking into the incident, though no further details were released as of Thursday.
Elder — who had arrived in his brand new “Recall Express” campaign bus spent roughly 12 minutes in the neighborhood before the egg throwing incident the Los Angeles Times noted.
Today I kicked off the Recall Express bus tour. Before we even left Los Angeles, my security detail was physically assaulted, shot with a pellet gun, and hit with projectiles. The intolerant left will not stop us. We will recall Gavin Newsom. We will save California.
— Larry Elder (@larryelder) September 9, 2021
California Politics
Newsom campaigns to defeat recall with help from powerful Democrats
Democratic U.S. Senators Warren, Klobuchar, and Sanders alongside former President Obama and Vice-President Harris are campaigning for Newsom
SAN LEANDRO, Ca. – California Governor Gavin Newsom has enlisted very powerful voices in processive circles and the Democratic Party in his efforts to beat back what the governor and his allies have labeled ‘the Republican recall.’
This past weekend, Newsom spent time alongside fellow Democrats, Massachusetts U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren- who appeared Saturday at a campaign stop in Culver City, which was followed by the governor campaigning Sunday at a rally with Minnesota U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Vermont’s U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders recorded a video advert to bolster Newsom’s campaign. Sanders, like Warren and Klobuchar is also a former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate.
NEW: @BernieSanders hits TV to call on California voters to vote NO on the Republican recall! pic.twitter.com/k4FzH3Br3Z
— StopTheRepublicanRecall (@StopRepRecall) August 30, 2021
Newsom, who faces the ballot box next Tuesday, has been crisscrossing the Golden State, galvanizing his base. In an interview last Friday with ABC News’ Los Angeles based correspondent Zohreen Shah, the governor expressed his gratitude for the support from Warren and Klobuchar.
“I’m so honored, but more importantly, they’re these strong women, and I think that’s one thing those three have in common,” Newsom said. He also pointed out that his loss would have a ruinous effect on the national agenda of the party and especially for the Biden Administration.
“The consequences of California turning red not blue are profound in terms of the agenda that the senator [Warren] is advancing, [President Joe] Biden is advancing,” Newsom said.
During the Los Angeles rally, both Newsom and Sen. Warren warned that if Newsom were to be replaced by the Republican who is the current polling frontrunner, conservative right-wing host Larry Elder, Californians could expect to see a slightly modified version of the type of governance displayed by former President Trump, whose politics Elder has embraced.
“Elder dreams of being California’s own Donald Trump,” she said then the Senator cautioned; “if what happened in Texas or Florida or South Dakota makes you worry about the future of our nation…then Governor Larry Elder should absolutely terrify you.”
I was glad to stand with @GavinNewsom today. Californians: Vote NO on the recall & send your ballot back by 9/14 to keep him as governor so women’s rights are respected, children are protected, our planet is defended, & all Californians have a fighting chance to build a future. pic.twitter.com/uqffHYFPaY
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) September 4, 2021
Newsom has seen an upward tick in approval numbers recently with the latest poll released by the Public Policy Institute of California showing that if the recall election were held today, 39 percent of California likely voters say they would vote yes to remove Newsom from office, while 58 percent say they would vote no on removing the governor.
On Wednesday Newsom was endorsed in an campaign advert released by former President Barack Obama.
“You’ve got a big choice to make by September 14. Governor Newsom has spent the past year and a half protecting California communities. Now Republicans are trying to recall him from office and overturn common-sense Covid safety measures for health care workers and school staff,” Obama says, with an image of Elder and former President Trump flashing on the screen.
Listen to @BarackObama — California has a big choice to make on September 14th.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) September 8, 2021
Your vote could be the difference.
Vote NO on the Republican Recall.
There’s too much on the line to sit this one out. pic.twitter.com/U3cKDcRaVY
The governor campaigned Wednesday with long-time political ally, U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris in a joint appearance at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers-National Electrical Contractors Association Joint Apprenticeship Training Center in San Leandro.
A smiling Harris greeted the governor and opened her remarks by speaking about Newsom’s display of political courage early on in both of their careers, when he as the mayor of the city of San Francisco, supported same-sex marriage. At the time Harris was the District Attorney for the city and county of San Francisco.

(Screenshot from Instagram live)
“That Valentine’s weekend in 2004,” the Vice-President noted- “Gavin didn’t hear ‘it can’t be done.’ He had the courage — as he’s had his entire career — to believe in and see what is possible. To see what can be unblinded by what has been. That’s the kind of leadership this daughter of Californians wants.”
Both Newsom and Harris have been long time allies and proponents for the LGBTQ community. Harris then told the crowd gathered that she had watched a news clip of Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott talking about the draconian and controversial new law that bans abortions after six weeks in Texas.
“To speak those words — that were empty words — that were false words that were fueled with not only arrogance but bravado. That is not who we want in our leaders,” Harris said. “We want in our leaders someone like Gavin Newsom, who always speaks the truth.”
The Vice-President then took aim at the Republican’s campaign to recall Newsom.
“They wouldn’t be trying to recall him except that they know he is a national leader,” Harris said. “This is why they are putting so many resources and time into trying to take out Gavin Newsom. It is because of his vision. It is because of the agenda.”
“Let us send the message to the world, that these are the things we stand for these are the things we fight for and we will not give up, because we know that so much is at stake. So many are counting on us and there was so much good that we can do.”
“They’re thinking that if they can get this done in California … they got to understand what’s happening right now. What’s happening in Texas, what’s happening in Georgia, what’s happening around our country with these policies that are about protecting women’s rights, reproductive rights and voting rights workers rights. They think if they can run in California they can do this anywhere. Well, we will show them you’re not going to get this done, not here.”
The White House press pool reporter traveling with the Vice-President reported that the crowd, which was limited because of Covid, was 192 in the audience and 70 members of the media. In a side note, after three hours on the ground, at 2:36 p.m. Pacific, Vice-President Harris walked back onto Air Force Two and the pool reporters learned that the crew was set to serve a California fast-food staple, In-N-Out Burgers on the return trip to Washington.
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