Public Policy Institute of California Poll; Newsom likely to survive recall

SAN FRANCISCO – With ten days left till California’s recall election day, California Governor Gavin Newsom is stepping up his efforts to convince the state’s voters that it is in their best interests for him to remain as the state’s chief executive.

A poll released by the Public Policy Institute of California earlier this week shows that voters are leaning towards that choice.

These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues that was conducted from August 20 to August 29 by the PPIOC:

• Among California likely voters, 39 percent would vote yes to remove Newsom, with Republicans far more likely to vote yes. About half of likely voters (49%) say they either have not decided or would not vote for any of the replacement candidates on the recall ballot. →
• Seven in ten California likely voters say that the outcome of the recall election is very important to them, including solid majorities across partisan groups. When thinking about the September 14 recall election, 47 percent say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual. →
• Californians name COVID as the top issue facing the state today. Forty-seven percent say things in California are generally going in the right direction, with partisans deeply divided; 49 percent say that California is in an economic recession, and this view declines with rising income. →
• Fifty-three percent of Californians approve of the way that Governor Newsom is handling his job overall, and 50 percent approve of the California Legislature. Fifty-eight percent approve of the way that President Biden is handling his job, and 41 percent approve of the US Congress. →
• Forty-six percent of Californians say things in the United States are going in the right direction. Forty-four percent think the US will have good times financially in the next 12 months. →
• Sixty-one percent of Californians favor requiring proof of COVID vaccination for large outdoor gatherings or certain indoor spaces. More than three in four Californians—including strong majorities across regions—think the state government is doing an excellent or good job distributing COVID vaccines. →

The survey’s findings also included that if the recall election—scheduled for September 14, 2021—were held today, 39 percent of California likely voters say they would vote yes to remove Governor Newsom from office, while 58 percent say they would vote no on removing Newsom. There is partisan disagreement, with most Democratic likely voters (90%) and about half of independent likely voters (49%) saying they would vote no on removing Newsom, while most Republican likely voters (82%) say they would vote yes to remove him.

About half of likely voters express a preference for a replacement candidate. Republican Larry Elder (26%) is in the lead, while fewer than one in ten say they prefer either Kevin Faulconer (5%), John Cox (3%), Kevin Kiley (3%), or Caitlyn Jenner (1%). Fourteen percent name other candidates. (Only candidates with both significant media attention and sufficient resources for statewide campaigning were included in PPIOC's survey question; five candidates met this criteria.) 

PPIOC also asked voters to name the most important issue facing people in California today; Californians most often name COVID-19. Additionally, about one in ten Californians name jobs and the economy or homelessness, while fewer mention housing costs and availability or problems with elected officials. Across partisan groups, Republicans are most likely to mention problems with elected officials and the economy, while Democrats are most likely to mention COVID-19. Nearly half of Californians think that the state is headed in the right direction, with Democrats far more likely than independents and Republicans to say this.